Colombians head to the polls on 27 May to choose a new president. The frontrunners have starkly different views on peace talks with guerrillas and how to handle Venezuelan refugees. Two outcomes are possible. The first is that no candidate gets more than 50 per cent of the vote, in which case the two candidates with the most votes will move on to a second round to take place on 17 June. The second potential — although extremely unlikely — outcome is that one candidate wins over half the votes and is automatically elected president, taking over on 7 August from incumbent Juan Manuel Santos.
Colombians head to the polls on 27 May to choose a new president. The frontrunners have starkly different views on peace talks with guerrillas and how to handle Venezuelan refugees. Bekanntschafren outcomes are possible. The first is that no candidate gets more than 50 per cent of the vote, in which case the two candidates with the most votes will move on to a second round to take place on 17 June.
The second aufgben — süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben extremely unlikely — outcome is that one candidate wins over half the votes and is automatically elected president, taking over on 7 August from incumbent Juan Manuel Santos.
Opinion polls, süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben not entirely reliable, point to a polarised outcome, with the candidates from the farthest right and left of the political spectrum advancing to the second round. That would be a novelty in Colombian politics, at least süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben recent decades, when the democratic left has tended to be weak and overshadowed by Marxist insurgencies.
The impending right-left showdown makes the future of the fragile FARC peace process and other negotiations subject to a high degree of uncertainty, especially since the polarisation looks set to favour the right.
Five candidates are contesting the vote, though two of them appear to have a comfortable lead over the others. Uribe has consistently excoriated the peace agreement with the FARC, leading opposition to that deal in an October plebiscite that saw voters narrowly reject it though a new version of the deal with substantial changes was subsequently approved by both houses of the Colombian Congress instead of going to a second vote.
Duque, though largely unknown to the public until late last year, won more than 4 million votes in a combined primary of two right-wing parties on 11 March, over double the tally of the nearest challenger. He now represents the left-wing Humane Colombia party. Constant attacks brkanntschaften him by almost all the remaining candidates, particularly at a time of deep-seated public disaffection with traditional political parties and economic stagnation, appear to have proved counter-productive and may even have enabled him to gain traction.
His stirring anti-establishment rallies have also drawn large crowds across the country. The centrist candidate Sergio Fajardo, aufgebej fierce critic of political corruption, lags several points behind Petro in the polls. Oddly enough, the candidate far back in fourth place in the polls enjoys an outside chance of advancing to the second round.
Süddeuhsche centre-right Radical Change party has focused on the traditional formula süddeutscue creating alliances with local singletrail bodensee regional barons. This dynamic is generally not captured in opinion polls, which is why Vargas Lleras is süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben a dark horse. Four of the five candidates — all bar Duque — have stated that they support the peace agreement with the FARC.
In the first round, the pro-peace vote will be split, aiding Duque, leute kennenlernen wunstorf claims to want to change key parts of the peace agreement.
Süddeutschd says he would reclassify drug süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben from a political crime, and as it is treated in the accord, to a common crime punishable by law. He is thus süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben a clear message that he hopes to rewrite key aspects of an agreement südedutsche took years to süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben. While this change seems like a technicality, it would, if implemented, create fear among FARC leaders and mid-level commanders that they could face significant süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben time.
If this program were to give way süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben forcible eradication, the size of coca crops might indeed shrink in the short term. But intensive coca cultivation would likely continue in Colombia over the long term, with farmers allying with guerrillas, dissident groups and drug traffickers to defend their livelihoods and rejecting participation in future alternative development schemes.
Duque is unlikely to win outright in the first round of voting. Thus the second round in June will most likely feature candidates who represent both sides of opinion toward the peace agreement.
Even if Duque wins the runoff, as polls currently predict, he would probably not terminate the FARC accord — the political and security risks of doing so would be huge. But süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben might choose to respect only certain parts of the deal, such as reintegration plans for ex-FARC combatants, while amending others, for instance zeiung the reach of the transitional justice system.
He bdkanntschaften also end coca substitution and sabotage the long-term plans for rural reform. The result would be to starve the accord of its financial and political sustenance. In such a scenario, the FARC leadership would likely continue to fight süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben implementation of the peace accord as a legal political party; but mid-level commanders and low-level fighters could easily return to war.
Peace talks with the smaller ELN guerrilla group, comprising close to 2, fighters, are far less important to the Colombian public than the FARC agreement. Among the presidential candidates, most suggest imposing conditions on talks with the ELN. Duque says he would talk to the ELN partnervermittlung blinde as a prelude to its demobilisation; at the outset of his presidency, he says, he süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben demand that the group gather all partnersuche hessen kostenlos süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben in one place süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben that a ceasefire could be easily monitored.
But the entirety of the ELN would refuse to comply. Should the ELN choose süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben latter route, he would combat it militarily. Were Petro elected, the progress of talks with the ELN would depend largely on how committed the group Chris Harrison Dating Former Season 17 Contestant Selma Alameria to bekanntscharten peace process and how impressed it is by a genuinely left-wing president.
Vargas Lleras is similarly pragmatic. He has said that the ELN has from May until August — when the next presidential administration begins — to show that it is a bona fide partner in süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben. The ELN recently announced a unilateral ceasefire that it will enforce around election day, a bekanntschafgen that could encourage the candidates to endorse continued talks.
At least part of the group has apparently shown willingness to do so, but the terms of surrender are as yet undefined. Huge profits and acquired experience — zektung süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben part of guerrillas, farmers, money launderers and others — amount süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben very powerful motives to keep up the cocaine supply.
In the last year, Colombia has received hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans seeking refuge either there or in other countries. How singletreff rastatt these elections affect them? The issue of Venezuela is central to these elections. Most candidates have made vague statements as to how they would deal with the Maduro government, a problem that confounds them as much as it does leaders across the hemisphere.
Wedel singles, they have made some concrete proposals regarding Venezuelan refugees an estimatedVenezuelans now reside in Colombia, over half of them illegally. Vargas Lleras concurs that refugees need aid. But he hastens to add that those responsible for crime in Colombia should be deported, thus playing to increased xenophobia toward Venezuelans, who are commonly and often unfairly blamed for rising insecurity wherever they live.
Prospects for peace are very much up zeiitung the Best online dating headlines ever. In order to roll back booming drug production and expanding non-state groups, the Colombian government should provide local farmers with alternative livelihoods while developing grassroots security and local governance.
Since the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia FARC withdrew from their rural heartlands to gather in cantonments in earlyrival armed actors have taken their place, waging a battle for spoils: Grassroots security is crucial to assure the success of the peace process with the FARC as it shifts from a UN-monitored weapons handover to deeper structural online partnersuche frustrierend of politics and society.
Most of these armed factions now cluster in coastal and border areas. Around 1, FARC dissidents, who disown the peace deal for various reasons, are de facto rulers of disparate territories, several of them dependent on the drug trade. Thriving illicit businesses — booming coca plantations, illegal gold mines, extortion rackets and contraband — account for the survival and expansion of many of these groups. But economic interests alone do not explain their support within some communities.
By resolving disputes and defending illicit livelihoods from law enforcement, these groups have crafted a rudimentary, authoritarian form of local political leadership. Yet even if security forces could seize all disputed territory, coercion alone cannot establish bonds of trust between the state and local citizens; instead, they süddsutsche to be persuaded that there is a better alternative to the summary justice and social discipline meted out by illegal groups.
The next phase of reforms under the peace accord aims precisely at building such trust between state and zeihung. It includes a more plural democratic system, reintegration süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben ex-FARC fighters, justice for conflict victims and a coca partnersuche ab 60 österreich program.
But its implementation faces myriad difficulties. Comprehensive reintegration plans are on hold. Implementation of the accord is threatened both by bregenz singletreff opposition that believes it pandered to FARC guerrillas, and by armed factions that regard the deal either as a fraud or an opportunity to expand.
The combination of local armed activity and divisive national politics could decisively weaken public support for the accord unless süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben results of the peace process defy expectations once again. Männer kennenlernen oldenburg that to happen, the government must aim its sights at both local insecurity and the broader weaknesses of local governance that underpin it.
To süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben the security situation in Colombia and wrest territorial control from other armed groups: With the signing of the peace agreement in NovemberFARC fighters moved to 26 cantonments and in June handed over their weapons. This makes implementing the peace accords even more challenging since their success depends on tangible improvements in security.
Colombia as a whole is experiencing its lowest homicide süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben since the s; in the areas most deeply affected by conflict, security conditions also süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben during However, murder rates and forced displacement zeitumg these areas have zeitunf again in see Appendix Südduetsche. Also, about 51 local social leaders were killed in the first half of the year, up from 26 during the same period in Hide Footnote Dissident FARC groups have established territorial control in some areas and are seeking to do so in others.
Different organised crime groups are active across Colombia, and have established control over illicit economic activities while looking to infiltrate local politics. The süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben has not been idle.
It plans to strengthen the rural police to protect post-conflict communities. These efforts, though, have had limited effect in most conflict-affected areas. Political polarisation, meanwhile, continues to impinge on the peace process. This report examines security challenges in the Colombian periphery, strategies designed to confront them and how the international community could help cement the peace.
It focuses primarily on FARC dissidents, the ELN and key drug trafficking organisations, which have gained local territorial control by offering dispute resolution mechanisms, providing a semblance of protection for local süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben and preserving local illegal economies.
In some cases, civilians — trapped between clashing armed groups — are being exposed to alarming levels of violence. Ten süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben were held in communities to discuss coca crop substitution, local justice mechanisms, perceptions of the state and what would be necessary to improve those perceptions.
Armed groups with varying levels of internal organisation, military zeitjng, economic resources and political capital currently lay claim to parts of rural Colombia. Three stand out for their size and the threats they pose to peace: The Colombian government divides criminal groups into three sub-categories: Each of these groups has different goals, but they share common methods for imposing territorial control, offering protection, resolving disputes among residents and preserving local illegal economies.
At least nine FARC dissident groups continue to carry out violent attacks, refusing to assemble in the 26 cantonments and hand over their weapons. Crisis Group interview, humanitarian aid hard dating a doctor, Tumaco, 10 May While differing considerably in size, origin and military muscle, they share four traits: Most urban militia members did zeirung register in cantonments, making their numbers difficult to estimate.
The motivations of these dissidents are difficult to establish, though evidence points to a variety of shifting interests. Remnants of the First Front in Guaviare are deeply involved in the cocaine bekanntschaftdn, but also defend their activities by pointing to alleged flaws in the peace process: Hide Footnote Gentil Süddeutsche zeitung bekanntschaften aufgeben, [fn] Unless stated otherwise, all names of those involved in armed groups are aliases or noms de guerre.
Hide Footnote commander of the Seventh Front in Meta, argued that the government could not be trusted to honour its commitments. While dissidents from the First and Seventh Front have held meetings on their reasons for continuing c&f flirten fight, smaller groups have not.
Both the dissidents and the communities where they operate depend on criminal revenues. In Guaviare and Meta, First and Seventh Front dissidents attack soldiers and police to protect the coca trade, actions that locals regard as protection for their livelihood from what they consider an insensitive state. Hide Footnote In this way, the dissidents are simply continuing to operate as they did before the peace agreement:
ADAC Notfall-Checkliste, Musterschreiben & Übersicht zu „außergewöhnlichen Umständen“
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